Here are my papers, with links (more or less organized by topic)

(to be updated)

 

If you need a paper and cannot find it here, please send me an email (don't pay outrageous fees to buy a paper)

Sovereign Debt and Sovereign Default

  • When Governments Promise to Prioritize Public Debt: Do Markets Care? (with Mitu Gulati, Mark Weidemaier, & Gracie Willingham) CEPR Discussion Papers
  • How to solve the Greek debt problem (with J. Zettelmeyer, E. Avgouleas, B. Eichengreen, M. Poiares Maduro, R. Portes, B. Weder di Mauro, and C. Wyplosz) Peterson Institute Policy Brief

  • Independent report on the Greek official debt (with B. Eichengreen, E. Avgouleas, M. Poiares Maduro, R. Portes, B. Weder di Mauro, C. Wyplosz and J. Zettelmeyer) CEPR Policy Insight VoxEU Piece

  • The Hausmann-Gorky Effect, (with M. Gulati) IHEID Working Paper

  • The use of corruption indicators in sovereing ratings, IDB Technical Note

  • Maduro Bonds (with Mitu Gulati) IHEID Working Papers

  • How to solve the Greek debt problem (with J. Zettelmeyer, E. Avgouleas, B. Eichengreen, M. Poiares Maduro, R. Portes, B. Weder di Mauro, and C. Wyplosz) Peterson Institute Policy Brief

  • Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities (with Y. Huang and M. Pagano), VoxEU piece

  • Public Debt and Long-Term Economic Growth: The Research and Policy Agenda, Proceedings of the 43rd Economics Conference, Austrian National Bank (2015).

  • "Revisiting Sovereing Bankrupcy," Brookings Report

  • “Do We Need a Mechanism for Solving Sovereign Debt Crises? A Rule-Based Discussion,” HEID Working Paper No: 03/2013. WP

  • "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey,” (with A. Presbitero) Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, (forthcoming) WP

  • "The Origins and Resolution of Debt Crises: It Is Not Always Fiscal!" Unpublished, The Graduate Institute, Geneva. TBD

  • "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?" MoFiR working paper No. 65 (with A. Presbitero). WP

  • "The Economic Rationale for the Principles on Promoting Responsible Sovereign Lending and Borrowing," (with Yuefen Li) in Carlos Esposito, Yuefen Li and Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky (eds), Sovereign Financing and International Law, Oxford University Press, (forthcoming). TBD

  • “International Government Debt,” (with F. Sturzenegger and J. Zettelmeyer) Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization (2012) WP

  • "The Politics of Debt and Debt Crises," SUERF/OeNB Forum (2012). TBD

  • “The Determinants of the Composition of Public Debt in Developing and Emerging Market Countries,” (with K. Forslund and L. Lima) Review of Development Finance (July 2011) WP PP

  • “The Elusive Cost of Default” (with E. Levy Yeyati) Journal of Development Economics (August 2010) WP PP

  • “Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?” (with E. Borensztein) Open Economies Review (May 2010) WP PP

  • "Avoiding Avoidable Debt Crises: Lessons from Recent Defaults," (with Y. Li and R. Olivares-Caminal) in C. A Primo Braga and G. A. Vincelette (eds.) Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time be Different?, The World Bank (October 2010). PP

  • “Is Domestic Debt the Answer to Debt Crises?” in B. Herman, J.A. Ocampo and S. Spiegel (eds.) Overcoming Developing Country Debt Crises. Oxford University Press (2010). WP

  • “The Costs of Sovereign Default,” (with E. Borensztein) IMF Staff Papers (November 2009) Featured in Economic Focus (The Economist) WP PP

  • “The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Sovereign Default,” (with F. Sturzenegger and J. Zettelmeyer) Journal of Economic Literature (September 2009) PP

  • “Public Debt Around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt,” (with D. Jaimovich) Applied Economics Letters (March 2008). WP PP

  • “The External Debt Contentious Six Years after the Monterrey Consensus,” G24 Discussion Papers Series 151 WP

  • “Domestic and External Public Debt in Developing Countries,” UNCTAD Discussion Paper 188 WP

  • Living with Debt. How to Limit the Risks of Sovereign Finance (editor, with Eduardo Borensztein and Eduardo Levy Yeyati). Harvard University Press for the Inter-American Development Bank, 2006. Book

  • “The Unexplained Part of Public Debt,” (with C. Campos and D. Jaimovich) Emerging Markets Review (September, 2006) WP PP

  • “Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts” (with K. Cowan, E. Levy-Yeyati, and F. Sturzenegger) Working Paper 577, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “Fiscal Sustainability: Issues for Emerging Market Countries,” (with A. Izquierdo) in A. El Galal and N. Ul. Haque (eds) Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Markets: International Experience and Implications for Egypt.American University in Cairo Press (2006). WP (application to Ecuador)WP (application to Egypt)

 

Bond Market Development

  • Bond Marked Development in Egypt (with B. Eichengreen), unpublished. WP TBD

  • "Conflicts of Interest, Reputation, and the Interwar Debt Crisis: Banksters or Bad Luck?" (with M. Flandreau and N. Gaillard). HEID Working Paper No: 02/2010, also CEPR Discussion Paper WP

  • Bond Markets in Latin America (editor, with Eduardo Borensztein, Kevin Cowan, and Barry Eichengreen). MIT Press, 2008 BOOK

  • “A Tale of Two Markets: Bond Market Development in East Asia and Latin America,” (with E. Borensztein and B. Eichengreen) Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Occasional Paper no. 3 (2006). PP

  • “Debt Instrument and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities,” (with E. Borensztein and B. Eichengreen). Background Paper for RES seminar at the IDB Annual Meeting, Belo Horizonte, March 2006. Working Paper 558, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank PP

 

International Finance and Original Sin

  • Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets (with Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, & Anusha Chari ) Journal of International Economics

  • The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter? (with Arturo Galindo) World Development

  • Can Countries Rely on Foreign Saving for Domestic Investment (and Development)? (with E. Cavallo and B. Eichengreen). Review of World Economics VoxEU Piece

  • Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China (with Y. Huang and R. Portes) NBER WP and CEPR DP versions

  • Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets (with L. Alfaro, G. Asis, and A. Chari) CEPR Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper, VoxEU Piece

  • CIEPR-Brookings Report on Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets (with V. Acharya, S. Cecchetti, J. De Gregorio, S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and P. Lane) see also VoxEU piece

  • The Real Effects of Financial Globalization: What Do the Data Say? Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science

  • The second wave of global liquidity: why are firms acting like financial intermediaries? (with J. Caballero and A. Powell), VoxEU Piece

  • “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Development and Industry Growth: A Synthetic View,” (with B. Eichengreen and R. Gullapalli), Journal of International Money and Finance (October 2011) WP PP

  • "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter-Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium" (with R. Hausmann). Journal of Globalization and Development (October 2011) PP

  • “An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis,” (with R. Bebczuk and A. Galindo) in H. S. Esfahani, G. Facchini, and G. Hewings (eds.) Economic Development in Latin America: Essays in Honor of Werner Baer. Palgrave Macmillan (2010) WP

  • “The Cyclical Nature of North-South FDI Flows,” (with E. Levy-Yeyati and E. Stein) Journal of International Money and Finance (January, 2007) WP PP

  • “Original Sin, Debt Intolerance and Currency Mismatches: Why are not the Same and Why it Matters,” (with B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann) in S. Edwards (ed.) Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences. NBER and University of Chicago Press (2007) featured by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times 08/04/2004 WP PP

  • “The External Debt Contentious Six Years after the Monterrey Consensus,” G24 Discussion Papers Series 151 WP

  • “Domestic and External Public Debt in Developing Countries,” UNCTAD Discussion Paper 188 WP

  • “The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate,” (with R. Hausmann and R. Rigobon) Journal of International Money and Finance (February, 2006) WP PP

  • “Corporate Governance and Private Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries,” (with A. Chong, A. Izquierdo and A. Micco) International Finance (Summer, 2005) WP PP

  • “The Pain of Original Sin,” (with B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann) in B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann (eds.) Other People’s Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging-Market Economies, University of Chicago Press (2005). TBD

  • “The Mystery of Original Sin,” (with B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann) in B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann (eds.) Other People’s Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging-Market Economies, University of Chicago Press (2005). TBD

  • “Original Sin and Monetary Cooperation,” in B. Fritz and M. Metzger (eds.) New Issues in Regional Monetary Coordination - Understanding North-South and South-South Arrangements, Palgrave Macmilian (2005) TDB

  • “Trade Agreements, Exchange Rate Disagreements,” (with E. Fernandez Arias and E. Stein) in V. Alexander, J. Mélitz, and G. M. von Furstenberg (eds.) Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade, Financial Development, and Stability, Oxford University Press (2004) WP

  • “The Determinants of Original Sin: An empirical investigation,” (with R. Hausmann) Journal of International Money and Finance (December, 2003) PP

  • “Le péché original: le calvaire, le mystère et le chemin de la rédemption,” (with B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann) L’Actualité Économique, Revue D’Analise Économique, (December, 2003) PP

  • “Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Currency Depreciation: A Summary of the Micro Evidence,” (with A. Galindo and F. Schiantarelli) Emerging Markets Reviews (December, 2003) PP

  • “Assessing Dollarization: An Application to Central American and Caribbean Countries,” (with E. Stein and E. Talvi) in E. Levy-Yeyati and F. Sturzenegger (eds.) Dollarization MIT Press (2003) TDB

  • “Corporate Governance and Private Capital Flows to Latin America,” (with A. Chong, A. Izquierdo, and A. Micco) in P. Cornelius and B. Kogut (eds.) Corporate Governance and Capital Flows in a Global Economy, Oxford University Press (2003) WP

  • “Original Sin, Passthrough and Fear of Floating,” (with R. Hausmann and E. Stein) in M. Blejer and M. Škreb (eds.) Financial Policies in Emerging Markets MIT Press (2002) TBD

  • “Why Do Countries Float the Way they Float?” (with R. Hausmann and E. Stein) Journal of Development Economics (December, 2001) WP PP

 

Banking and Finance (including state-owned banks)

  • Smart Development Banks (with Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann) IHEID Working Paper

  • Non-linearities in the Relationship between Finance and Growth, Comparative Economic Studies (March 2018) French version Non-linéarités dans la relation entre finance et croissance in Revue d'économie financière

  • Too Much Finance or Statistical Illusion: A Comment (with JL Arcand and E Berkes)

  • "Finance and Economic Development in a Model with Credit Rationing," (with J.L. Arcand and E. Berkes), HEID Working Paper No: 02/2013. WP

  • "Too Much Finance?" (with J.L. Arcand and E. Berkes). IMF Working paper WP/12/161 (older version March 2011) WP

  • "Finance and Economic Development," International Development Policy (June 2012). (available in French in Revue internationale de politique de développement) TDB

  • "Conflicts of Interest, Reputation, and the Interwar Debt Crisis: Banksters or Bad Luck?" (with M. Flandreau and N. Gaillard). HEID Working Paper No: 02/2010, also CEPR Discussion Paper WP

  • “A Reappraisal of State-Owned Banks,” (with E. Levy-Yeyati and A. Micco) Economia (Spring 2007). WP PP

  • “Bank Ownership and Performance, Does Politics Matter?” (with A. Micco and M. Yañez) Journal of Banking and Finance (January, 2007) WP PP

  • “Bank Ownership and Lending Behavior,” (with A. Micco) Economics Letters (November, 2006) WP PP

  • “The Changing Role of Government in Finance,” (with A. Galindo and A. Micco), in E. Lora (ed.) The State of the Reform of the State. Stanford University Press (November, 2006) TBD

  • “Bank Concentration and Credit Volatility,” (with A. Micco) in G. Caprio, D. Evanoff, and G. Kaufman (eds.) Cross Border Banking: Regulatory Challenges. World Scientific Publishing (2006). WP

Political Economy, Decentralization, and Public Sector Labor Market

  • "Democracy, Education and the Quality of Government" (with Piergiuseppe Fortunato) POLIS Working paper 155. WP

  • “Public Administration and Institutions in Latin America: Alternative View Paper,” in B. Lomborg (ed.) Copenhagen Consensus for Latin America and the Caribbean, Cambridge University Press (2010)  WP

  • “Public-private wage differential and gender gap in Latin America: Spoiled bureaucrats and exploited women?,” (with C.Z. Qiang) Journal of Socio Economics (December, 2005) PP

  • “Why are Latin Americans so Unhappy about Reforms?” (with M. Yañez) Journal of Applied Economics (May, 2005) WP  PP

  • “Patterns and Determinants of Political Participation in Latin America,” (with A. Gaviria and J. Seddon), Latin American Journal of Economic Development (October, 2004) PP

  • “Reforms Fatigue: Symptoms, Reasons and Implications” (with E. Lora and M. Quispe) Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Second Quarter, 2004) PP

  • “Political Institutions and Growth Collapses,” (with A. Gaviria, J. Seddon, and E. Stein) Latin American Journal of Economic Development (April, 2004) PP

  • “On the Determinants of Fiscal Centralization,” DICE Report (March, 2004) PP

  • “Examen des réformes structurelles en Amérique Latine,” (with E. Lora) Problèmes d'Amérique Latine (Spring 2003) PP

  • “Political Particularism around the World,” (with A. Gaviria, J. Seddon, and E. Stein) World Bank Economic Review (March, 2003) WP PP

  • “The Future of Structural Reforms,” (with E. Lora) Journal of Democracy (April, 2003) PP

  • “The Strange Case of the Public Sector Wage Premium,” Public Finance Management (November, 2002) WPPP

  • “The Public sector Premium and the Gender Gap in Latin America. Evidence for the 1980s and 1990s.” Working Paper 431, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “Electoral Rules, Political Systems, and Institutional Quality,” Economics and Politics (November, 2001) WPPP

  • “Public-Private Wage Differentials and Bureaucratic Quality. Evidence from Latin America,” Economia (Fall, 2001) PP

  • “On the Determinants of Fiscal Centralization: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Public Economics (October, 1999) PP

  • “Decentralization as a Mechanism to Prevent Secession,” Economic Notes (November, 1998) TBD

Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

  • The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say? (with C. Wyplosz). Russian Journal of Money and Finance (March 2018)

  • And Yet It Moves: Inflation and The Great Recession (with D. Miles, R. Reis, and A. Ubide), VoxEU Piece, on Sole 24Ore

  • Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (with Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, & Dana Vorisek) CEPR Discussion Papers

  • "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey,” (with A. Presbitero) Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, (forthcoming) WP

  • "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?" MoFiR working paper No. 65 (with A. Presbitero). WP

  • "Too Much Finance?" (with J.L. Arcand and E. Berkes). IMF Working paper WP/12/161 (older version March 2011) WP

  • "International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions," (Valerie Cerra a Sweta Saxena) Contemporary Economic Policy (March 2012) WP PP

  • “Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of the Labor market? The Role of Labor Market regulations,” (with A.M. Loboguerrero) Contributions to Macroeconomics, B.E. Journals in Macroeconomics (October, 2006). WP PP

  • “Pro-Cyclicality or Reverse Causality” (with D. Jaimovich), Working Paper 566, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “Targeting the Structural Balance” (with L. Dos Reis and P. Manasse) Working Paper 598, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “Macroeconomic Shocks, Inflation and Latin America’s Labour Market,” (with A. M. Loboguerrero) in Langhammer, R.J. and Vinhas de Souza, L. (eds.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, Springer (2005) PP

  • A Decade of Development Thinking (with E. Lora, C. Pages and E. Stein) Inter-American Development Bank (2004) PP

  • “Income Distribution and Economic Growth: Evidence from the U.S. States Data,” Journal of Economic Growth (March, 2002) WP PP

  • “Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets,” in E. Cardoso and A. Galal (eds.) Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes, Options for the Middle East ECES, Cairo (2002) WP

  • “Convergence in Income Inequality,” Journal of Income Distribution (Spring-Summer, 2001) PP

  • “Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers: Inflation versus Money Supply and Exchange Rate Targets,” The Open Economies Review (January, 1997).  PP

  • "Equity Constrained Firms and Business Cycle Fluctuations: A Model with Capital,” I Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, University of Turin TDB

 

Latin America

  • Investment Gaps in Latin America and the Caribbean (with Francesca Castellani, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Yue Zhou) International Development Policy

  • Living with Debt. How to Limit the Risks of Sovereign Finance (editor, with Eduardo Borensztein and Eduardo Levy Yeyati). Harvard University Press for the Inter-American Development Bank, 2006. BOOK

  • Bond Markets in Latin America (editor, with Eduardo Borensztein, Kevin Cowan, and Barry Eichengreen). MIT Press, 2008 BOOK

  • “Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts” (with K. Cowan, E. Levy-Yeyati, and F. Sturzenegger) Working Paper 577, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “Macroeconomic Shocks, Inflation and Latin America’s Labour Market,” (with A. M. Loboguerrero) in Langhammer, R.J. and Vinhas de Souza, L. (eds.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, Springer (2005) PP

  • “Why are Latin Americans so Unhappy about Reforms?” (with M. Yañez) Journal of Applied Economics (May, 2005) WP PP

  • A Decade of Development Thinking (with E. Lora, C. Pages and E. Stein) Inter-American Development Bank (2004) PP

  • “Patterns and Determinants of Political Participation in Latin America,” (with A. Gaviria and J. Seddon), Latin American Journal of Economic Development (October, 2004) PP

  • “Examen des réformes structurelles en Amérique Latine,” (with E. Lora) Problèmes d'Amérique Latine (Spring 2003) PP

  • “Fiscal Sustainability: Issues for Emerging Market Countries (application to Ecuador) WP

  • Peru's Great Depression: A Perefect Storm? (with Gonzalo Llosa) WP

 

Middle East (including religion)

  • Bond Marked Development in Egypt (with B. Eichengreen), unpublished. TDB

  • “Religion and Education Gender Gap. Are Muslims Different?” (with M. Hajj) Economics of Education Review(June 2009) WP PP

  • “Fiscal Sustainability: Issues for Emerging Market Countries,” (with A. Izquierdo) in A. El Galal and N. Ul. Haque (eds) Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Markets: International Experience and Implications for Egypt. American University in Cairo Press (2006). WP

  • “Social Mobility and Religion. Evidence from Lebanon” (with M. El Khoury) Research in the Social Scientific Study of Religion (Fall, 2005) TDB

  • “Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets,” in E. Cardoso and A. Galal (eds.) Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes, Options for the Middle East ECES, Cairo (2002) WP

  • “Macroeconomic Policies in Egypt: An Interpretation of the Past and Options for the Future,” Journal of Development and Economic Policies (December, 2002) WP

  • “Education, Childbearing, and Female Labor Market Participation: Evidence from Lebanon,” (with M. Hajj) Journal of Development and Economic Policies (June, 2002). Reprinted in A. Al-Kawaz Enhancing Links between Education and Labor Market, American University of Cairo Press. TDB

  • Djibouti - Crossroads of the Horn of Africa: Poverty Assessment, (with L. Ferreira et al.), The World Bank, Washington, D.C. (1997) PP

 

Italy

  • Public debt risks in Italy: myths, facts and policies, Capital Markets Law Journal

  • “Leggi elettorali e qualità delle istituzioni. Avevamo bisogno di un referendum?” Mimeo, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank WP

  • “I mercati bancari e assicurativi piemontesi,” (with A. Grosso) in Piemonte Economico e Sociale, (Rosenberg & Sellier, Turin, 1998) TBD

  • “Il credito e i servizi finanziari,” (with A. Marchi) in R.Cominotti, S. Mariotti (eds.) Italia multinazionale nei servizi ETASLIBRI, Milan (1992) TDB

 

Hard to classify

Comments, Op Eds, and Short Notes